Server Processor Counts Will Rise to Levels That Strain the Ability of Current Software to Make Effective Use of That Capability
The relentless doubling of processors per microprocessor chip will drive the total processor counts of upcoming server generations to peaks well above the levels for which key software have been engineered, according to Gartner, Inc.
Operating systems, middleware, virtualization tools and applications will all be affected, leaving organizations facing difficult decisions, hurried migrations to new versions and performance challenges as a consequence of this evolution.
"Looking at the specifications for these software products, it is clear that many will be challenged to support the hardware configurations possible today and those that will be accelerating in the future," said Carl Claunch, Vice President and Distinguished Analyst at Gartner.
"The impact is akin to putting a Ferrari engine in a go-cart; the power may be there, but design mismatches severely limit the ability to exploit it."
On average, organizations get double the number of processors in each chip generation, approximately every two years. Each generation of microprocessor, with its doubling of processor counts through some combination of more cores and more threads per core, turns the same number of sockets into twice as many processors.
In this way a 32-socket, high-end server with eight core chips in the sockets would deliver 256 processors in 2009. In two years, with 16 processors per socket appearing on the market, the machine swells to 512 processors in total. Four years from now, with 32 processors per socket shipping, that machine would host 1,024 processors.
Gartner said that organizations need to take heed of the issue because there are real limits on the ability of the software to make use of all those processors. "Most virtualization software today cannot use all 64 processors, much less the 1,024 of the high-end box, and database software, middleware and applications all have their own limits on scalability," Mr. Claunch said.
"There is a real risk that organizations will not be able to use all the processors that are thrust on them in only a few years time."
According to IDC, worldwide IT spending on cloud services will grow almost threefold, reaching US$42 billion, by 2012.
As the cloud computing model offers a much cheaper way for businesses to acquire and use IT, IDC expects its adoption to be amplified by the cost-cutting mantra of most organizations today.
Dr. Patrick Chan, IDC's Chief Technology Advisor for Emerging Technologies in Asia/Pacific says, "Future uptake of cloud computing looks strong. Over the next three years, as the use of cloud services expand from the domain of early adopters to that of the early majority, it becomes critical for IT vendors to develop strong cloud offerings, and play a leadership role in aligning their new cloud products and services with their organization, their traditional offerings, partner ecosystem, and customer and market requirements.
IT vendors who fail to seriously contend for a leadership role will be left with a minority share of the lucrative pie."
For IT vendors to be successful in the cloud market, they will have to address users’ cost concerns. The survey also revealed that more than 50% of the respondents indicated cost cutting as the key driver behind the adoption of cloud computing.
Put simply, cloud computing is a way for SMBs to access enterprise-class technology with minimal up-front costs and easy scalability. Over the next three years, we’ll see cloud computing continue to expand. Because cloud computing allows a large number of networked computer systems to share an IT infrastructure, operating “in the cloud” frees small business owners previously limited by the capabilities of local or remote computers. It also allows midmarket companies to reduce in-house IT infrastructure costs and transfer day-to-day business applications to the cloud from their terrestrial offices.
Cloud computing is particularly attractive to SMBs because it allows them to reduce up-front investment in technology infrastructure and use Web-hosted services as they would electricity or water—paying only for what they use.